►The second Trump administration may revisit summit diplomacy with North Korea, but global priorities and Kim Jong Un's strategic ties with Russia and China suggest negotiations will remain difficult and conditional.

►South Korea's alignment with U.S. goals on denuclearization is critical, as achieving a nuclear-free North Korea would strengthen the global nonproliferation regime and mitigate regional threats.

►Backup strategies like NATO-style nuclear sharing or allied nuclear armament may be necessary to address heightened security concerns if North Korea rejects comprehensive denuclearization agreements.

Trump’s Election and Prospects for North Korea’s Nuclear Negotiations

In November, Donald Trump was elected as the next president of the United States. While his election will have broad implications for the international order, South Korea’s primary concern lies in whether the U.S. will reengage in negotiations over North Korea’s nuclear program. Trump has previously alluded to his “good relationship” with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, raising speculation about a potential revival of summit diplomacy reminiscent of his first term.

However, with ongoing global challenges such as the war in Ukraine, the Middle East crisis, and the strategic competition with China taking precedence, the North Korean nuclear issue may not be readily prioritized in a second Trump administration. North Korea, for its part, is unlikely to feel an urgent need to engage with Trump, given its economic and military gains from closer ties with Russia, including its recent troop deployment in support of Russia in the Ukraine war. Amid these circumstances, it may be likely that we see the 2nd Trump admin pursue a continuation of a “maximum pressure” campaign akin to that of 2017 rather than efforts to return to negotiation early on. Nevertheless, it remains a distinct possibility that Trump will pursue summit diplomacy with Kim at some point during his presidency, especially given Trump’s apparent confidence in his ability to solve the North Korea issue.

The challenge lies in the conditions Kim Jong Un might set for dialogue. Kim has recently emphasized his “Two Korea” theory conception of the peninsula, portraying South Korea as a separate, distinct state and signaling the abandonment of unification efforts. This posture reflects a survival strategy aimed at navigating his unfavorable international environment while leveraging ties with Russia and China to evade sanctions. As a result, Kim is unlikely to return to the negotiating table unless terms are highly favorable to him. These dynamics are fueling concerns in South Korea that Trump might ultimately agree to a nuclear freeze deal, effectively recognizing North Korea as a nuclear power. Such an agreement would strain U.S.-South Korea relations even before dialogue with North Korea begins.

The Ideal Precondition of Negotiation: North Korea Denuclearization

In 2019, the U.S.-North Korea summit in Hanoi centered on North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear facility and its uranium enrichment sites. The talks concluded without an agreement, as Trump rejected a deal limited to Yongbyon and insisted on the inclusion of additional facilities. Trump eventually backed away from the negotiating table, conceding that it was better to leave without an agreement than to accept terms that failed to adequately address U.S. concerns. If negotiations resume, they are likely to pick up from where Hanoi left off, meaning that the direction of future dialogue will hinge on whether Trump decides to stick to his previous hardline strategy or adopt a new more conciliatory approach.

The South Korean government will likely seek to maintain strong ties with the second Trump administration, expanding cooperation across security, economic, and other sectors. On the nuclear issue, South Korea is expected to support U.S.-North Korea dialogue while emphasizing the ROK’s interest in denuclearization. Seoul recognizes that it cannot prevent Trump from pursuing dialogue with North Korea, and that that alignment with Washington is critical to resolving the North Korean problem within the framework of the U.S.-South Korea alliance.

A crucial aspect of this collaboration is establishing a clear, shared goal: strengthening the global nonproliferation regime through the denuclearization of North Korea. The North Korean nuclear issue poses a direct challenge to international nonproliferation efforts and threatens U.S. allies such as South Korea and Japan. Achieving denuclearization would not only reduce regional threats but also restore a crumbling international regime, sending a strong message to potential challengers like Iran, which may be tempted to pursue similar nuclear ambitions if they perceive North Korea’s nuclear development as a success. 

While complete denuclearization cannot be achieved in a single step, the principle of a nuclear-free North Korea must remain as the unwavering long-term goal. The most desirable approach would involve a comprehensive agreement with phased implementation of denuclearization measures. Despite North Korea’s previous resistance to such agreements during Trump’s first term, pursuing this approach remains essential. Failure to do so risks North Korea solidifying its status as a de facto nuclear state while reaping the benefits of sanctions relief. This underscores the need for a cautious approach by the second Trump administration.

Addressing Security Concerns with “Plan B”

If North Korea ultimately refuses a comprehensive agreement and settles for measures like freezing its Yongbyon facility, the U.S. must address the resulting security concerns of its allies. Backup policy options such as NATO-style nuclear sharing or even allied nuclear armament could be considered. For South Korea, which has upheld the international nonproliferation regime while relying on U.S. security guarantees, a nuclear freeze deal would exacerbate its vulnerability. Supporting U.S. negotiations while facing increased threats would necessitate reciprocal measures from the U.S. to reassure its allies. The same holds for Japan, though its adherence to the “Three Non-Nuclear Principles” would shape its policy options differently. 

The priority should be on aligning the U.S. negotiation strategy with allied interests before engaging North Korea and to address potential allied security concerns that might arise from such talks. Approaching negotiations this way would strengthen trust in U.S. leadership and enhance allied cooperation. Additionally, floating the possibility of a “Plan B” (such as nuclear sharing or domestic nuclear armament) could be used to pressure North Korea and influence the decision making of its backers Russia and China.

The second Trump administration has the opportunity to reorganize the international order under the principle of “America First” while simultaneously strengthening the U.S.-led alliance system. With significant geopolitical conundrums on multiple fronts, a key challenge and priority will be revitalizing the weakened nonproliferation regime. South Korea must cooperate closely with U.S. strategy, while Washington, in turn, must devise a wider range of options to address the security concerns of its allies. Only through such an approach can the path to North Korean denuclearization remain open.