- The forthcoming North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) summit in the Netherlands is a timely opportunity for South Korea to reassert its commitment to the rules-based order as a key US ally while simultaneously furthering its economic and security interests.

- Through this investment and through the support of companies such as US tech giant OpenAI, Lee intends to transform South Korea into one of the top three global powerhouses in AI.

- If Lee attends the summit, his participation could bolster NATO’s confidence about South Korea’s commitment to the US-led rules-based order despite growing South Korea-China economic engagement.

The forthcoming North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) summit in the Netherlands is a timely opportunity for South Korea to reassert its commitment to the rules-based order as a key US ally while simultaneously furthering its economic and security interests. Although not a NATO member, South Korea’s involvement in the informal Indo-Pacific Four (IP4) grouping along with Australia, Japan and New Zealand, has provided an avenue for the country to participate in the NATO summit as a partner since 2022.

The NATO summit comes at a significant time of domestic and regional challenge for South Korea. Along with cost-of-living pressures and sluggish domestic consumption, the US’s imposition of 25% tariffs has compounded South Korea’s domestic economic woes. Economic rejuvenation is accordingly a top priority for Lee, as reflected through the launch of a dedicated task force to support tariff negotiations with the US. However, the issue of tariffs continues to be a key headache for Lee, especially as a much-anticipated side meeting between the two countries at the G7 was cancelled due to Trump’s early departure.

Aside from tariff negotiations, Lee aims to rejuvenate South Korea’s ailing economy through a pledged investment of 100 trillion won into the domestic development of  artificial intelligence (AI). This focus on “AI by Korea, for Korea, and of Korea” will furthermore assist South Korea to respond to geostrategic instability in the Indo-Pacific through the development of a sovereign capability in a key tech area. Through this investment and through the support of companies such as US tech giant OpenAI, Lee intends to transform South Korea into one of the top three global powerhouses in AI.

Although domestic economic concerns are currently Lee’s top priority, the NATO summit could offer an opportunity for South Korea to further its economic interests. If Trump decides to attend the NATO summit, this could provide an avenue for Lee to engage in an in-person dialogue with Washington DC to reach a mutually beneficial solution about tariffs sooner rather than later.

Even if Trump doesn’t attend, the summit could be an opportunity for South Korea to secure new export markets if the proposed increase to the domestic defence budgets for NATO countries goes ahead. As the world’s eighth largest weapons exporter, South Korea would be well-placed to meet growing demand form by scaling up its existing defence industry cooperation with NATO countries like Poland and Romania. With South Korea’s goal to become a world powerhouse for AI capabilities, the export of military AI could be one key focus of South Korea’s future defence industry cooperation with NATO countries.  

On the national security front, preserving peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula continues to be South Korea’s top priority. However, in contrast to Yoon’s previously antagonistic approach to the North, Lee wishes to advance the goal of cross-border dialogue in line with the Democratic Party of Korea’s standard policy goal. On the backdrop of growing inter-Korea tensions, as seen through North Korea’s reversal of its policy goal to reunify with the South and its escalating cooperation with Russia, Lee has pledged to restore military-level communications and is open to Trump’s potential role in reinstating talks with Kim. However, when it comes to collaboration on the Korean Peninsula, Trump will first and foremost be interested in reaching a solution with Seoul about burden sharing the ongoing costs associated with deploying US troops to the region.

Aside from the burden sharing issue, what further complicates Lee’s engagement with Trump is South Korea’s growing relationship with partners including China. Under Lee’s approach of “pragmatic diplomacy” to foreign policy, South Korea intends to balance relationships with regional partners including the US, China, Japan and Russia to best secure its economic and security interests. In anticipation of Lee’s election victory, China in fact bolstered economic ties with South Korea by easing its unofficial ban on South Korean cultural imports including K-Pop. This ban had originally been imposed from 2016 in retaliation for US’s deployment of a THAAD missile on South Korea soil.

If Lee attends the summit, his participation could bolster NATO’s confidence about South Korea’s commitment to the US-led rules-based order despite growing South Korea-China economic engagement. Lee in fact already reiterated his desire to build cooperation with the US, as well as with Japan, in his inauguration speech earlier this month.

Furthermore, attending NATO would be an opportunity for Lee to demonstrate his commitment to regional minilateralism through the IP4 grouping. Although Australian Prime Minister Albanese is not personally attending, the summit will enable Lee to prioritise key regional issues with Japan and New Zealand’s respective leaders. On the backdrop of Lee’s desire to build productive cooperation with North Korea, the IP4 meeting will enable key Indo-Pacific democracies to discuss the way ahead on this security issue. In particular, the IP4 meeting could be an opportunity to bolster Japan’s role on inter-Korea cooperation, as previously seen in 2023 through the Camp David Summit with the US and South Korea.

While the upcoming NATO meeting may seem like yet another example of summit diplomacy, if leveraged properly it could be an integral avenue for the new South Korean administration to advance its key economic and security interests especially if Lee personally attends. Although Lee will continue to bolster ties with regional partners like Beijing, his participation would send a strong signal to reiterate Seoul’s role as a reliable partner of choice for Washington DC, NATO countries more broadly as well as IP4.