► Those who view China as a spoiler argue that it provides North Korea just enough breathing space to withstand the impact of sanctions. However, applying too much pressure could result in a military provocation which could then lead to a humanitarian crisis. ► Considering that the only way to convince North Korea is to mix-and-match pressure and incentives, it is important to utilize China’s ...

► China has been a proponent of North Korean denuclearization. However, given the unstable domestic situation, combined with the uncertainty resulting from its competition and conflict with the United States, China’s view is that any sudden changes on the Korean Peninsula will further complicate the situation. ► For China, maintaining the status quo while maintaining and improving its strategic pos...

► The Sino-DPRK political relations have recovered in the recent years while their economic ties have troubled by a double whammy: the UN-imposed sanction and the covid-19 pandemic. Thus, recovering their trade and furthering their economic ties will become a top priority on Sino-DPRK relations. ► As the United States holds the key to lifting the sanctions against North Korea, Pyongyang has strong mo...

► The Chinese current assessment does not yet support the imminence of North Korean provocations. North Korea wants to keep the door to negotiations open, and it understands very well that early provocation with a nuclear or ICBM test will bury the chance for diplomatic engagement—and the possibility for such engagement still exists with the Biden Administration.  ► If the Chinese assessment is ind...