► Korea-China relations are deteriorating. After the Korean government's decision to deploy THAAD, the Chinese government responded with coercive diplomacy, deepening the emotional rift between the two countries. In addition to security cooperation, attempts to diversify economic exchanges naturally followed, which has accelerated the deterioration of bilateral relations in the era of US-China strategic competition.

► Over the past 30 years since the establishment of Korea-China diplomatic relations on August 24, 1992, China's policy toward the Korean peninsula has changed in step with changes in China's external perception.

► Korea's Yoon Suk-yeol administration largely emphasizes a reciprocal relationship with China. As long as China does not pursue coercive diplomacy and responds based on mutual reciprocity, the administration will generally maintain a position of close cooperation with China.

Deterioration of Korea-China Relations and Increasing Instability in East Asia

Korea-China relations are deteriorating. This past June, in a meeting with the leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, Lee Jae-myung, Chinese Ambassador to South Korea Xing Haiming said, "With the United States heavily pressuring China, some are betting that the U.S. will win and China will lose. What I can assure you is that those who bet on China's defeat now will surely regret it later." This remark criticized the Yoon Suk-yeol administration's U.S.-aligned foreign policy, and Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs immediately summoned Ambassador Xing and strongly condemned the statement, calling it an irresponsible act that goes against the spirit of Korea-China friendship and fuels misunderstanding and mistrust between the two countries. The Chinese government in turn called in the South Korean ambassador Chung Jae-ho to lodge a complaint, exacerbating the emotional confrontation and wall of mistrust between the two countries.

Since Yoon Suk-yeol's inauguration, his administration has stressed democratic values and emphasized cooperation and solidarity with the United States. This is based on the perception that cooperation with the U.S. is absolutely necessary to strategically address the structural challenges on the Korean peninsula, including the North Korean nuclear issue. Over the past year or so since the start of the administration, the Yoon government has emphasized strengthening the ROK-U.S. alliance and has promoted a basic line of foreign policy that stresses ROK-U.S.-Japan security cooperation. This is a reflection of South Korea's considerable security anxiety and concerns over the North Korean nuclear issue, and after South Korea’s deployment of THAAD, China retaliated against South Korea, leading to anti-Chinese sentiment and a sense of crisis, which further united Korea, the U.S., and Japan.

South Korea's former Park Geun-hye administration (02/2013-03/2017) stressed cooperation with China in response to security issues, including the North Korean nuclear issue and Korean reunification issues, and sought out close cooperation with the Chinese government while emphasizing China’s role. North Korea conducted its third nuclear test in February 2013, shortly before the start of the Park Geun-hye administration. Since then, both China and Korea have been anticipating China's role in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue, but between 2016 and 2017, North Korea's Kim Jong-un regime conducted its fourth, fifth, and sixth nuclear tests, which put Korea-China strategic cooperation to the test. Recognizing the large gap between the Korean government's expectations and reality when it comes to cooperating with China on security issues such as the North Korean nuclear issue, strategic distrust between the two countries has also grown. After the Korean government's decision to deploy THAAD, the Chinese government responded with coercive diplomacy, deepening the emotional rift between the two countries. In addition to security cooperation, attempts to diversify economic exchanges naturally followed, which has accelerated the deterioration of bilateral relations in the era of US-China strategic competition.

China's Policy Stance Toward the Korean Peninsula and Strategic Mistrust Between Korea and China

Over the past 30 years since the establishment of Korea-China diplomatic relations on August 24, 1992, China's policy toward the Korean peninsula has changed in step with changes in China's external perception. Following the post-Cold War period, China began to take a more strategic response with its foreign policy. During the era of Jiang Zemin, the core leader of the third generation of Chinese leadership, China strategically responded by pursing a "reassurance policy," and during the era of the fourth-generation leader Hu Jintao, China pursued a policy of peripheral diplomacy to foster an external environment that would promote China's continued economic rise. During the term of the fifth-generation leader Xi Jinping, China is pursuing a policy of global diplomacy in line with the era of U.S.-China strategic competition.

The Chinese government has created strategies to deal with the Korean peninsula in line with its various foreign policy approaches. During the Jiang Zemin era, China distanced itself from North Korea while emphasizing economic cooperation with South Korea. During the Hu Jintao era, China pursued a policy of pressuring North Korea in cooperation with the international community, but following North Korea's second nuclear test in 2009, it began pursuing a policy of equidistant diplomacy for both South and North Korea. In the early years of the Xi Jinping era, China emphasized cooperation with South Korea, but with the Trump administration's changes to U.S. North Korea policy in 2018, China broke its long silence and conducted five consecutive summits with North Korea. This shift can be seen as a restructuring of the Chinese government's policy toward South Korea, signifying that while China cooperates with South Korea, it places Korea-China relations inside the larger frame of U.S.-China relations.

There is a misconception in the Chinese government that the Yoon administration's foreign policy aims to participate in the strategy of containing China and is adopting an anti-China policy. In other words, China is concerned that the nature of United States Forces Korea (USFK) has shifted away from its intrinsic role of deterring North Korea and is instead responding in full force to China's military moves. Nevertheless, the Chinese government still desires strategic cooperation with South Korea as well as industrial cooperation between the two countries, including with the Korean semiconductor industry. China's position is evidenced by President Xi Jinping's visit to the LG Display production facility in Guangzhou, China on April 12, which was significant as Chinese leaders rarely visit foreign companies. In addition to sending a signal to South Korea, which is facing a rapidly growing trade deficit with China, the visit also strongly demonstrated to Chinese businesses that China has a strong determination to cooperate with South Korea. Later, in an interview with Reuters on April 19, shortly before President Yoon's visit to the United States, he commented on the prevailing view that South Korea "opposes any attempt to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait by force." The Chinese government reacted negatively to these remarks, further deteriorating relations between the two countries. One thing is clear - as a divided nation in East Asia, the Korean government does not oppose the peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan, and for the sake of peace and stability in the region, there is an increasing need for strategic space for cooperation between Korea and China.

Changes in US-China Relations and the Future of Korea-China Bilateral Relations

Korea's Yoon Suk-yeol administration largely emphasizes a reciprocal relationship with China. As long as China does not pursue coercive diplomacy and responds based on mutual reciprocity, the administration will generally maintain a position of close cooperation with China. While pursuing a strategy of advocating for liberal democracy and the universal values of humanity, the Yoon administration also criticizes the previous Moon Jae-in administration's foreign policy of "strategic ambiguity" and instead emphasizes "strategic clarity". This position aims to keep pace with the Biden administration's foreign policy of respecting value-based alliances. The problem is that with the recent signs that the Biden administration is rebalancing its China policy, it is becoming more difficult for Korea to maintain such a position.

Economically, by taking steps to adjust the current hardline policy towards China, the Biden administration is attempting to shift from a policy of de-coupling to de-risking, seeking mutually beneficial cooperation with China, including in the technology sector. In particular, the Biden administration’s plans to change its China policy is sending an important message to European countries, and the administration is actively managing the international community's shift away from the existing hardline policies toward China and de-coupling policies while attempting to strengthen solidarity with the United States.

In terms of military security, the Biden administration is stressing the importance of building "guardrails" to reduce the risk of instability in East Asia. This shares some similarities with China's crisis management policy, and it is likely that the two countries will seek a middle ground in the future. In addition to these broad changes, there are growing calls for the restoration of strategic communication channels and pursuit of strategic rebalancing between Korea and China.

In terms of Korea-China military security, the two countries have deep-rooted strategic mistrust, but they are willing to promote mutually beneficial economic cooperation. To manage instability in East Asia and to respond to structural issues on the Korean Peninsula and in the Taiwan Strait, it is important to strengthen strategic communication between the United States and Korea and restore strategic communication channels between Korea and China to exchange views. Currently, strategic dialogue between the two countries does lack of momentum, which makes it difficult to develop bilateral relations. Thus, open and honest dialogue is critical. Despite criticism that Korea-China relations have reached their lowest point since the establishment of diplomatic ties in August 1992, cooperation between the two countries is one way to contribute to peace and stability in the region, and it will serve as the first step in linking the guardrails and crisis management mechanisms promoted by the United States and China. Therefore, it is crucial to promote open and honest dialogue between Korea and China for the sake of peace and prosperity in the international community.