Author(s)
September 6, 2023
► In the midst of the U.S.-China strategic confrontation, India's strategic value has grown dramatically.
► The scope of the cooperation can be expanded to fields such as defense industry, space, aviation industry, shipbuilding, and nuclear energy.
► The litmus test to see whether Korea and India are willing to become true strategic partners is the sluggish CEPA revision negotiations.
Korea and India are celebrating 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations this year. At the beginning of the establishment of diplomatic relations 50 years ago, under the background of the Cold War, Korea belonged to the U.S. camp and India was a leader of the non-aligned group; there were many restrictions on the development of bilateral relations. As India pursued an open economic policy in the early 1990s, many Korean companies entered India and the relationship between the two countries developed rapidly. In particular, India has considered Korea as a role model for its Look East policy and has hoped for various cooperation as well as investment from Korea. The two countries established a ‘special strategic partnership’ during Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Korea in May 2015. This may represent the best relationship that can be expressed in words. If so, is the relationship between the two countries truly the best, with strategic cooperation, as expressed verbally? My answer is negative. My judgment is that the two countries are still not making full use of potential to develop their relationship. A clear example is that negotiations for upgrading the existing CEPA(Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement), which are very important for the development of relations between the two countries, have not been concluded for more than 10 years.
Recent changes of the international situation, represented by the confrontation between the United States and China, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, are increasing the possibility of developing their relationship to a more strategic level. India has already maintained a very close relationship with Japan for a long time, and is engaged with the United States, Japan, and Australia through the Quad; however, there will be additional gains by strengthening cooperation with Korea. Since both countries have China as their neighbor, it would be of great help if they could have open minded conversations about China. It would be desirable for India, which is seeking to promote manufacturing sector under the banner of ‘Make in India', to cooperate with Korea, which started from scratch and has become a manufacturing powerhouse. From Modi's perspective, the vacuum caused by the death of Abe, a close friend of him, can be filled through President Yoon Seok-yeol, who has very enterprising and proactive attitude.
Korea has recently strengthened the ROK-U.S. alliance and is very active in trilateral cooperation, as seen at Camp David Korea-U.S.-Japan trilateral summit last August. This is a clear flag-waving attempt to side with the U.S. and liberal democracy camp in the confrontation between the United States and China. It is a completely different approach from the previous Moon Jae-in administration, which took an ambiguous stance between the United States and China. There is a criticism within South Korea that President Yoon's actions could draw China and Russia closer to North Korea; making it difficult to obtain cooperation from the two countries in managing the situation on the Korean Peninsula, including the North Korean nuclear issue. In this regard, South Korea's strengthening of relations with India is expected to have effects of alleviating these concerns to some extent. It will make China and Russia think that it is not wise to stay away from Korea just because they do not like its actions. As Chinese economy is becoming more sluggish and Korea-China relations are increasingly worsening than before, many Korean companies operating in China are looking for an alternative. It is natural that the emerging India is considered a priority. The Korean government needs to create a political environment favorable to companies entering India.
I believe that the failure of the relationship between the two countries to develop into actual strategic cooperation is largely due to Korea's attitude rather than India's. While Korea has talked about a strategic relationship in words, but in reality, it was only focused on economic interests, seeing it as a new market with huge potential. Moon Jae-in administration promoted so-called New Southern Policy which includes India in it, but the main target of the policy was ASEAN and it did not make any notable efforts toward India. It is now time for Korea to change this perspective. It has become clear that it is impossible to achieve only economic benefits without strategic and political cooperation with India. Moreover, in the midst of the U.S.-China strategic confrontation, India's strategic value has grown dramatically. A clear example is that Prime Minister Modi, who visited the United States last June, receiving a warm reception comparable to that of former Prime Minister Churchill. India is also playing a leading role in BRICS, which has expanded to 11 countries by adding 6 countries and will host the G-20 summit in Delhi this September.
There are signs that South Korea and India are shifting their views on each other and are moving toward strategic cooperation. Foreign Minister Park Jin, who was absent from the G-20 Foreign Ministers' Meeting held in Delhi in early March for unclear reasons, made a separate official visit to India on April 7-8. This was the first visit by a Korean foreign minister to India in five years. The two countries held a Foreign Policy and Security Dialogue between Vice Ministers of Foreign Affairs in January this year and a National Security Office Strategic Dialogue in August. These meetings are all included in the list of action plans as a ‘special strategic partner’ agreed upon by the two countries.
Prime Minister Modi and President Yoon Seok-yeol held a summit on the occasion of the G-7 Summit in Hiroshima last May and will also hold a summit on the occasion of the G-20 Summit to be held in Delhi in early September; but there is a need to promote a bilateral visit as soon as possible. If possible, it would be desirable for President Yoon Seok-yeol to visit India before this year, which marks 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries.
If Korea and India engage in full-scale strategic cooperation, they could bring many benefits to both sides. First of all, in the midst of the U.S.-China competition, it will expand each other's activity space to some extent. If the two countries begin to view each other from a strategic perspective, they will be able to attempt security cooperation as well. In the current trend where security aspects are being highlighted in the economy, there is a great potential for mutual economic win-win between the two countries. The scope of the cooperation can be expanded to fields such as defense industry, space, aviation industry, shipbuilding, and nuclear energy.
The litmus test to see whether Korea and India are willing to become true strategic partners is the sluggish CEPA revision negotiations. Rather than pushing and pulling from a microscopic perspective, the two countries should take a more macroscopic strategic perspective to quickly conclude negotiations for future-oriented cooperation. The efforts need to be considerate of each other’s positions and major agendas. These include India's push for permanent membership in the United Nations, the northern border issue, and South Korea's North Korean nuclear issue.