► Over the past few decades, South Korea and Japan have experienced strained diplomatic relations, often rooted in historical grievances and territorial disputes. It appears that vicious cycles of political disputes and negative public opinions exist in the bilateral relations.

► However, despite the perception that politics hampers economic ties between the two nations, a deeper examination reveals a resilience in their economic relationship.

► Interestingly, it appears that women in Japan play a pivotal role in driving the consumption of Korean products, including travel to South Korea.

► While political conflicts may emerge again, more and more evidence indicate that consumers, in particular Japanese women, and businesses are becoming less susceptible to the disruptive impact of such tensions. This suggests that the era of utilizing historical tensions for political gain may be coming to an end, as it increasingly appears futile in the face of enduring economic interdependence and cultural exchange.

Naoko Tanaka, a 42-year-old housewife residing in Kyoto, indulges in Korean dramas and movies during her leisure time. She also occasionally embarks on aesthetic treatment trips to Korea with her housewife friends. Her daughter, who attends a local high school, is equally captivated by the world of K-pop, with its charismatic idols and catchy melodies, particularly the iconic BTS, which has also captured the hearts of countless fans worldwide.

Vicious cycle of political turmoil and negative economic ramifications

Over the past few decades, South Korea and Japan have experienced strained diplomatic relations, often rooted in historical grievances and territorial disputes. Whenever political disputes have arisen between Tokyo and Seoul, they have often had adverse impacts on businesses. In Korea, boycotts against Japanese products have been common during periods of heightened political tension. A notable episode in this diplomatic disagreement occurred in 2019 when the Japanese and South Korean governments became embroiled in trade disputes. These trade disputes led to a dramatic escalation in political rhetoric and countermeasures, sparking fears of further economic ramifications. Immediately following these disputes, public opinion polls in both nations revealed a significant deterioration in favorability towards each other, a trend that persisted in the following years. During these periods, even Naoko and her daughter, who would typically not alter their behavior, might also have refrained from consuming Korean products. My recent study with prof. Sijeong Lim also indicates that the public in both countries became defiant against the opposing government after the trade disputes, especially when they were informed that their country incurred costs due to the disputes. It appears that vicious cycles of political disputes and negative public opinions exist in the bilateral relations.

The impact of the recent trade disputes was not limited to the realm of public opinion. Companies, particularly those in the tech industry, exhibited a heightened sensitivity to the political tensions. South Korea’s key tech exports to Japan, vital components of the global supply chain, witnessed a sharp drop in demand immediately following the disputes. This event underscored the interdependence of both economies, which may also reveal the influence that political decisions could exert on economic relations.

Optimistic trends continue

However, despite the perception that politics hampers economic ties between the two nations, a deeper examination reveals a resilience in their economic relationship. Over the past two decades, the total trade values between Japan and South Korea have remained relatively stable, demonstrating the two countries’ resilience to weather political storms. Even after the 2019 trade disputes, trade levels managed to rebound, eventually reaching and surpassing 2018 levels by the year 2023.

An intriguing development contributing to optimism in the bilateral relationship was the ratification of a free-trade agreement between Japan and South Korea in 2020. This marked the first time the two nations had taken such a step, potentially signaling a more cooperative era in trade relations. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which also includes numerous other Asian nations, came into effect in 2022. These developments show the promise of further expanding bilateral trade and fostering economic cooperation.

The optimistic trend is not confined to the exchange of commodities; it extends to tourism as well. In April 2023, Japan became the largest source of tourists for South Korea, while Koreans were also the top visitors to Japan. This mutual interest in exploring each other's countries suggests a curiosity and longing for cultural exchange that may transcend the boundaries of politics and diplomacy.

Japanese Women: Key to Sustaining Favorable Bilateral Relations

Interestingly, it appears that women in Japan play a pivotal role in driving the consumption of Korean products, including travel to South Korea. The fictional story of Naoko and her daughter serves as a real-life example of this trend. Today, Korean cosmetic and clothing stores, as well as posters and life-sized panels featuring Korean bands, can be seen throughout Japan’s streets, which is a testament to the growing appeal of Korean culture to Japanese women. While Davis and Meunier (2011) found that businesses often remain unaffected by political tensions in an era of globalization, their focus likely centered on non-cultural products. In contrast, the global influence of Korean culture, known as Hallyu, has sparked grassroots consumption of Korean cultural products, becoming a driving force in bilateral economic relations. In my opinion, this phenomenon challenges the above-suggested view of the vicious cycle, as it indicates that in an era of globalization, cultural products and experiences can have a profound impact on economic relations, alongside traditional industries like semiconductors.

Even in the aforementioned study of mine, conducted immediately after the 2019 trade disputes in both countries, a nuanced pattern emerged in the attitudes and behaviors of the public. Even amid the trade disputes, Japanese women exhibited slightly more favorable attitudes toward South Korea than Japanese men; the tendency also confirmed by the recent Japanese cabinet public opinion survey in 2022. Furthermore, the potential for boycotting Korean products was noticeably lower among Japanese women compared to Japanese men. Interestingly, in South Korea, the trend appears to be reversed, with men showing greater favorability toward Japan than women. Korean men were also less inclined to boycott Japanese products. Still, for Japan, this intriguing gender difference in attitudes highlights the effectiveness of South Korea’s cultural export efforts in Japan, demonstrating that the allure of Hallyu, or the global spread of Korean culture, continues to resonate with at least some segment of the Japanese society. These trends should also underscore the potential for cultural diplomacy to shape perceptions and foster goodwill between nations.

End of the politics?

Now, what can we infer about the political dynamics between South Korea and Japan? Recent political developments such as this suggest an optimistic outlook for the political landscape between the two nations. However, history serves as a reminder that leaders on both sides will inevitably confront a multitude of challenges. Diplomatic relations between South Korea and Japan have been marred by historical grievances and territorial disputes. While periods of rapprochement and cooperation have occurred, they have often been followed by episodes of tension and mistrust.

The enduring presence of historical issues in the bilateral relationship highlights the complexity of the situation. Leaders on both sides must thus navigate a delicate balance between addressing historical grievances and prioritizing contemporary interests. While political conflicts may emerge again, more and more evidence indicate that consumers, in particular Japanese women, and businesses are becoming less susceptible to the disruptive impact of such tensions. This suggests that the era of utilizing historical tensions for political gain may be coming to an end, as it increasingly appears futile in the face of enduring economic interdependence and cultural exchange.